Can Dr Manmohan Singh do the magic again?

Who doesn't know the growth story India achieved during early nineties when Dr Manmohan Singh joined the cabinet as finance minister? Scenarios then were different. The foreign currency reserve was in a complete disarray (a mere $1 billion), balance of payment was a huge problem, fiscal deficit was nearly 8.5 % of GDP, current account deficit was close to 3.5% of GDP, and the license raj was at its peak. India was just dolloped with crisis and more economic crisis. Dr Singh along with then PM Narsimha Rao focused on a major agenda – economic liberalization. Despite immense opposition from political and bureaucratic circles Dr Singh paved the path for privatization. From a socialistic economy to a capitalist one, India has achieved a lot in these two decades of transformation, but this transformation is not complete yet.

What Dr Singh achieved in those five years as finance minister has overshadowed his role as prime minister. As a prime minister, his achievements are not worth mentioning except civil nuclear deal. In the last eight years he had hardly intervened in the financial matters and the results are thrown on the face. Both P Chidambaram and Pranab Mukherjee have failed to influence the sentiments of FIIs. The reason: coalition politics. This has just propelled huge corruptions in the system.

With Pranab Mukherjee leaving the MoF and racing for presidential poll, what's more pertinent now for Dr. Singh is to first keep him insulate from the effects of coalition politics. And literally he should behave like a superman and forget politics for sometimes. Instead he should first move FDI bill for the retail and insurance sectors. Similarly, FDI in agriculture, infrastructure, telecom, civil aviation, and media should be opened up. At least the foreign investors can come forward to invest hugely in these sectors. And of course there in an inherent problem in our system – the bureaucratic hurdles. To transform India to the next economic superpower, we must do away with absurd business procedures. That could be possible only when PM will act in tandem with other ministries. Let's see how our PM is playing his magic wand.

President Pranab Mukherjee

The long speculation about UPA's candidature for the 13^th President of India has come to an end post announcement of Pranab Mukherjee's name by Sonia Gandhi. Why the chief troubleshooter of UPA II is chosen over many significant others for the presidency during a period of utter crisis has many political reasons. Whether it's making a smooth passage for Rahul Gandhi to be the next PM in 2014 or transforming the stigma of policy paralysis in the North Block or even engineering a stable constitutional solution to handle uncertainties in the outcome of 2014 general elections mandate, Sonia Gandhi has predictably resolved all issues at one go by nominating Pranab Mukherjee for presidential candidate. The kingmaker Sonia Gandhi has always outwitted her opponents by her sheer political acumen. And that's tried and tested in last two decades on many occasions.

Now that the country is seriously heading towards an economic downturn, especially in last two-three years, the UPA II is urgently looking for a finance minister more plaint towards to the market forces and bring about significant changes before 2014. First, as finance minister Pranab Mukherjee hasn't performed up to industry expectations and the recent tax rows with Vodafone is a dampener for further foreign direct investment in Indian market. Second, being a longtime Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee is obviously an aspirant for the top job of the government (read PM), which is literally impossible in the current political scenario. So, the best option left for him to move to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. In that lies many blessings for the UPA. As a diehard Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee will bail out UPA in case there is a fractured mandate in 2014. Moreover, the speculation of an early poll will be diminished.

As far as the electoral process goes, Pranab Mukherjee will win the contest with great margin. Despite TMC's opposition for Pranab Mukherjee's candidature, other political parties including SP, BSP, JD(U), Left and certain allies of NDA will unanimously support him. And that could bring well over 60% votes of the electoral college.

Race for the President

Amidst all kinds of hypes and hoopla for the race of next President of India, many names those are doing rounds in political consultations among various parties maybe a deliberate part of a larger facade that UPA has conscientiously floated in public to obfuscate the real winner for this race, which anyway Sonia Gandhi, the President of UPA, will unfold it as a last minute surprise. Whether the media is consciously meditating over any viable name, be it Pranab Mukherjee or Hamid Ansari, the Congress party will certainly repeat it tricks as it did cunningly last time.

With growing factions among NDA allies, the BJP has already lost its golden chance to gather unanimous consensus for giving another opportunity to our ex-President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam when SP was even eager to support an apolitical person like Dr Kalam. It's now obvious that NDA has hardly any major role to play in this Presidential election other than supporting the candidate to be finalized by the Congress party towards the end of this month. Till then all types of media hypes around this will only buttress UPA's secret plan.

Well, as Sonia Gandhi has already started consultations with leaders of UPA's major allies, it seems she is garnering absolute consensus on her decisions, not on the candidatures for the poll. And the interesting part of this consultation process is that once the magic mark is achieved and decisions of various regional party leaders are converged to a potent winning strategy, Ms Gandhi will pull out the final pigeon from her sleeve.

The chances are that neither Pranab Mukherjee nor Hamid Ansari would be the final choice of Sonia Gandhi. They are just the decoy candidates. So, who is that luckiest one? It's a million dollar question. Given the current political situations, Pranab Mukherjee is the most sought-after politician in UPA who's not only an astute trouble-shooter, but also he is equally bankable in all seasons.

Remember, Pranab Mukherjee has some higher aspirations in politics and that's only possible before 2014 general elections. How is that feasible then when Dr Manmohan Singh has held the highest position? So it won't be very surprising that when Sonia Gandhi would ask Dr Manmohan Singh to move to the Rashtrapati Bhawan and bless Pranab Mukherjee with the dream job of his life. And both these decisions of Sonia Gandhi will act as a game changer for UPA's success in 2014 elections. Till then all are speculations.