President Pranab Mukherjee

The long speculation about UPA's candidature for the 13^th President of India has come to an end post announcement of Pranab Mukherjee's name by Sonia Gandhi. Why the chief troubleshooter of UPA II is chosen over many significant others for the presidency during a period of utter crisis has many political reasons. Whether it's making a smooth passage for Rahul Gandhi to be the next PM in 2014 or transforming the stigma of policy paralysis in the North Block or even engineering a stable constitutional solution to handle uncertainties in the outcome of 2014 general elections mandate, Sonia Gandhi has predictably resolved all issues at one go by nominating Pranab Mukherjee for presidential candidate. The kingmaker Sonia Gandhi has always outwitted her opponents by her sheer political acumen. And that's tried and tested in last two decades on many occasions.

Now that the country is seriously heading towards an economic downturn, especially in last two-three years, the UPA II is urgently looking for a finance minister more plaint towards to the market forces and bring about significant changes before 2014. First, as finance minister Pranab Mukherjee hasn't performed up to industry expectations and the recent tax rows with Vodafone is a dampener for further foreign direct investment in Indian market. Second, being a longtime Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee is obviously an aspirant for the top job of the government (read PM), which is literally impossible in the current political scenario. So, the best option left for him to move to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. In that lies many blessings for the UPA. As a diehard Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee will bail out UPA in case there is a fractured mandate in 2014. Moreover, the speculation of an early poll will be diminished.

As far as the electoral process goes, Pranab Mukherjee will win the contest with great margin. Despite TMC's opposition for Pranab Mukherjee's candidature, other political parties including SP, BSP, JD(U), Left and certain allies of NDA will unanimously support him. And that could bring well over 60% votes of the electoral college.

Race for the President

Amidst all kinds of hypes and hoopla for the race of next President of India, many names those are doing rounds in political consultations among various parties maybe a deliberate part of a larger facade that UPA has conscientiously floated in public to obfuscate the real winner for this race, which anyway Sonia Gandhi, the President of UPA, will unfold it as a last minute surprise. Whether the media is consciously meditating over any viable name, be it Pranab Mukherjee or Hamid Ansari, the Congress party will certainly repeat it tricks as it did cunningly last time.

With growing factions among NDA allies, the BJP has already lost its golden chance to gather unanimous consensus for giving another opportunity to our ex-President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam when SP was even eager to support an apolitical person like Dr Kalam. It's now obvious that NDA has hardly any major role to play in this Presidential election other than supporting the candidate to be finalized by the Congress party towards the end of this month. Till then all types of media hypes around this will only buttress UPA's secret plan.

Well, as Sonia Gandhi has already started consultations with leaders of UPA's major allies, it seems she is garnering absolute consensus on her decisions, not on the candidatures for the poll. And the interesting part of this consultation process is that once the magic mark is achieved and decisions of various regional party leaders are converged to a potent winning strategy, Ms Gandhi will pull out the final pigeon from her sleeve.

The chances are that neither Pranab Mukherjee nor Hamid Ansari would be the final choice of Sonia Gandhi. They are just the decoy candidates. So, who is that luckiest one? It's a million dollar question. Given the current political situations, Pranab Mukherjee is the most sought-after politician in UPA who's not only an astute trouble-shooter, but also he is equally bankable in all seasons.

Remember, Pranab Mukherjee has some higher aspirations in politics and that's only possible before 2014 general elections. How is that feasible then when Dr Manmohan Singh has held the highest position? So it won't be very surprising that when Sonia Gandhi would ask Dr Manmohan Singh to move to the Rashtrapati Bhawan and bless Pranab Mukherjee with the dream job of his life. And both these decisions of Sonia Gandhi will act as a game changer for UPA's success in 2014 elections. Till then all are speculations.

Cabinet reshuffle or coalition compulsion

The much-awaited, big-ticket cabinet reshuffle that the prime minister once created disproportionate hype in media circle has finally ended in a jocular political musical chair trivia, nothing exciting or forward looking given a poll-bound government three years down the line. What our prime minister was initially claiming that the rejig could weed out the non-performers and tainted ministers has eventually sent a message that political and coalition compulsions outweigh the merits of reshuffling and probity in governance.

In the same vein, he once again painted him a subdued follower of a political leadership who neither has vision nor tact in managing the most complex political coalition with iron fists. Every time when political crisis lambasts governance, we hear a well-rehearsed cliché – coalition dharma. But the moot question here is how long this coalition dharma would mar the future of an emerging democracy? No one has a legitimate answer to this. The problem here is that either this government has a serious fear psychosis against the present scenario or there is something serious flaw in the political leadership in this country, both ways the Congress party is a loser.

Well, if cabinet reshuffling is a prerogative of the prime minister, Dr Manmohan Singh has given a blatant disservice to the nation in terms of subjugating to the political compulsions. As the prime minister, he could have endorsed to inducting a couple of brilliant technocrats like Montek Singh Aluwalia to his cabinet through lateral entry or he could have infused some capable young leaders by entrusting them with certain major responsibilities. On both fronts, he failed to achieve that. When inflation, corruption, decelerated FDI, and subsided industrial growth have plagued the macro economy of this country, as a renowned economist he has deliberately overlooked at them and simply accommodated changes a layman can perceive in the current political turmoil.

On the contrary if we believe that the cabinet reshuffle is a give-and-take gesture between the prime minister and the chairperson of UPA II, then the latter has completely failed to understand the complex political war that would quite predictably bring disastrous to the future prime minister of the Congress party, Mr Rahul Gandhi, on many counts. Primarily Ms Sonia Gandhi has failed to understand is the pulse of the nation. If at all she has played a role in advising the prime minister to marginalize his wisdom, then she has restored some inheritance of loss for her son Rahul.

For a poll-bound government, the primary political compulsions do not comprise appeasing the present coalition elements, rather it's the high time to restore the faith of common man in overall governance. Beyond stringent political compulsions there are plenty of ordinary issues those have extraordinary impact of the next elections. Nonetheless, both Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi have failed to perceive the truth and showed their naivety again.

An introspective period for the Congress

Everything is not hunkydory in the current hot political space of India. The ruling party is literally battered by a series of corruption scandals, many have been unfolded internally and many are peeping out of the holes of WikiLeaks, and the most astounding fact aligned to these trails of corruption is the support of Congress in the UPA alliance in betraying the trusts of a billion plus people and forcing this great nation to a state of despair. The shimmering political instability due to the furore over wide-ranging corruptions, coupled with idiosyncratic disillusioned coalition partners, has tightened the noose around this government. There are many reasons to the evolving political turmoil that has bugged the UPA in general, and the Congress party in specific. If we can remember the history of Congress, as the frequented ruling party at the Centre, it's quite conspicuous that the last three coalition governments led by Congress including the current one have been involved in large-scale corruptions. That said it also doesn't suffice the sanctity or integrity of the Congress as a political party either led by Indira or Rajiv. India has been a silent observer of highhandedness of this party at different points of history including the internal emergency during 1975.

The coalition government, as initiated by the then VP Singh, the crusader of political corruption in India, has lost its true sense. Now it's more dangerous a political option to govern the largest democracy of the world with whims and fancies of regional parties which in every now and then gamble the political decisions in difficult times, whether it's civil nuclear bill or any other bill. The recent government, despite being headed by an honest, intellectual, wise statesman like Dr. Manmohan Singh, has revealed the wildest dark zones of coalition politics. Instead the cognizance of many political offenses happening under his nose, he stands helpless and stoic, for the simple reason that he has to follow his coalition dharma. And the irony is that despite all corruption charges against various UPA coalition partners, he still manages to share a mysterious smile that reveals much of his expression than what he intends to hide from public. That's his eternal magnanimous character to stay cool and keep a blind eye to the political rampage stirred by the coalition partners, and perhaps that's his most preserved strength, which has impressed Sonia Gandhi for last two elections and compelled her to choose him the right candidate as the prime minister. At least, he understands the reality, and has also experienced it many times, that he, being the prime minister of the largest democratic country, is still not an elected representative of people. What could be more exciting than this? But the Congress party will never accrue any long term benefit as Sonia Gandhi aspires a smooth dynastic power transition to Rahul Gandhi in the next election. It seems, as the current political equations are brewing up, Rahul will be the most unfortunate scion of Congress losing a golden chance to rule this nation.

The evidences are clear now. Rahul Gandhi's down-to-earth personality and hardwork haven't even charmed the states across India. Over these years the Congress has lost contacts with the states, and if the regional political upsurges are any denominator of current power matrix, it's quite evident that the next Parliament elections will be disastrous for the Congress. The major states including UP, Bihar, Gujrat, West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu are either ruled by a regional party or BJP. UP most of the times was ruled by Congress; however, in last two decades, the regional parties took control of the state politics. So, if we seriously analyze the political dynamics of India, the mushrooming regional parties in reality have understood the pains of state citizens, and hence their continued success is an indicative of drastic failure of central parties like Congress and BJP. If anybody in the Congress could seriously understand the importance of state political leadership was none other that Rajiv Gandhi. His unfortunate demise was a turning point in the political aggressiveness of the Congress. And the post-Rajiv Congress party has been absolutely directionless, nonstrategic, and tactless. Both Sonia and Rahul have failed to understand the gravity of reorganization of the party at the state level. Sonia's selection of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister for consecutive terms was a grave mistake, especially in the lights political standpoints. Though Sonia's fear of losing her leadership control over the party could have been imminent given an alternative to Manmohan Singh, but her worst fear has yet to come, when Rahul will be betrayed by Indian voters in the next election. Though I don't vouch for any senior leadership in Congress for the post of Prime Minister, Rahul Gandhi could have been the best bet at least for the 2009 elections, despite his naive and immature stint in politics. Moving away from this option was the grandest mistake executed by Sonia Gandhi, maybe due to fear for some unknown reasons, but those were necessarily irrational. In India, and exclusively in political race, the charisma of any dynasty has been highly effective. If Rahul could have been the Prime Minister, he would have immense power not only in drawing policies effective for state levels, but also could have helped reorganizing the state leadership for the Congress party. The so called grassroots development and especially state concerns have been sidelined by the Centre in last two elections. Being just a remote control of power, Sonia Gandhi has under-weighed the serious reasons in political game, which could bring in devastating results in the next Parliament elections. Still she has time for course correction to evade the imminent danger, if at all she wishes to do. Are you listening, Sonia Ji?