President Pranab Mukherjee

The long speculation about UPA's candidature for the 13^th President of India has come to an end post announcement of Pranab Mukherjee's name by Sonia Gandhi. Why the chief troubleshooter of UPA II is chosen over many significant others for the presidency during a period of utter crisis has many political reasons. Whether it's making a smooth passage for Rahul Gandhi to be the next PM in 2014 or transforming the stigma of policy paralysis in the North Block or even engineering a stable constitutional solution to handle uncertainties in the outcome of 2014 general elections mandate, Sonia Gandhi has predictably resolved all issues at one go by nominating Pranab Mukherjee for presidential candidate. The kingmaker Sonia Gandhi has always outwitted her opponents by her sheer political acumen. And that's tried and tested in last two decades on many occasions.

Now that the country is seriously heading towards an economic downturn, especially in last two-three years, the UPA II is urgently looking for a finance minister more plaint towards to the market forces and bring about significant changes before 2014. First, as finance minister Pranab Mukherjee hasn't performed up to industry expectations and the recent tax rows with Vodafone is a dampener for further foreign direct investment in Indian market. Second, being a longtime Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee is obviously an aspirant for the top job of the government (read PM), which is literally impossible in the current political scenario. So, the best option left for him to move to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. In that lies many blessings for the UPA. As a diehard Congress loyalist, Pranab Mukherjee will bail out UPA in case there is a fractured mandate in 2014. Moreover, the speculation of an early poll will be diminished.

As far as the electoral process goes, Pranab Mukherjee will win the contest with great margin. Despite TMC's opposition for Pranab Mukherjee's candidature, other political parties including SP, BSP, JD(U), Left and certain allies of NDA will unanimously support him. And that could bring well over 60% votes of the electoral college.

Hazards of Coalition Compulsions

Can the recent coalition politics mar the aspirations of India as an emerging superpower? If the functioning of UPA II is analyzed threadbare, only one truth surfaces up – coalition politics is all about political convenience rather than a rational political consensus in the name of parliamentary democracy where the job of the ruling party is to give in to the whims and fancies of regional allies and blindly neglect the larger national interest. And the latest sin of coalition compulsions has erupted from India's voting against Sri Lanka along with other 23 nations under a UNHRC resolution on alleged human rights violations happened during an internal war in 2009.

When all the Asian countries voted for Sri Lanka, only India became an exception by raising the human rights violation flag against its neighborhood. What's India doing then when the war crimes took place against Tamils in 2009? Were we on a hibernation mode? Or we couldn't figure out responsibility as a civilized nation? If human rights violation against Indian Tamils is the only rational ground that India stood firm, then why India internally has been supporting the similar violations in J&K, Nagaland and other North-East states for decades together? What it seems on the surface is not true. There is a severe political compulsion that has triggered this government to commit this faux pas and that too initiated by a regional ally like DMK. If the UPA II is so scared about political implications of coalition mandate, then it's better to call it a day and go for a mid-term poll rather than destroying the larger national interests.

Whatever happened has serious implications on the strategic aspirations of India in the Asian region. Undoubtedly, India has lost that space to China. Now that China has got closer to Sri Lanka, in the coming days India will certainly feel the heat in many dimensions, be it trade or strategic alliances. Understandably though India has a genuine reason to condemn Sri Lanka for human rights violation against Tamils, nevertheless the issue could have been mutually settled between two countries through dialogues or other reconciliation processes. With decades of hard efforts in bringing regional cooperation among SAR countries, India has finally reduced to a pawn in Americans' hand. And the time is not far off when the same America for its own interest would come down heavily on India for the human rights violation happening in Kashmir and NE states. Can India then get the desired support from its neighboring countries? The chances are wafer thin. Probably, India will then realize its mistake. There is something beyond politics and India as the largest democracy has failed to understand this.