Friday, March 25, 2011

Conviction is more powerful than statistical extrapolations

Yesterday, India smashed Australia in the quarterfinal at the Sardar Patel Stadium at Motera. And that's now an established fact, rather than a million dollar speculation. India made it with exceptional fete. Though I am not a cricket frenzy, as an informed citizen, I just keep a tab on the events happening around and sometimes I speculate conclusion based on the various predictive parameters attributed to past events, this, you may connote, a statistical extrapolation. But remember, this statistical analysis based on the previous hard facts maybe misleading, and the chances are that the prerogative of winning gets blurred when the analysts believe only in hard facts, not on the many symbiotic parameters those have some potential impact on the results. That's what proved excitingly unthinkable when the predictability of winning took a different turn right since the Indian cricket players started believing in their conviction and inner strength, which eventually catapulted them to the winning platform. I was terribly wrong in applying my unchallenged math skills, but in all those objectivity I missed a quite critical subjective side of winning - the people, their spirit and the teamwork - which no scientific methodology can explain now, even in future as well. That said I would like to remind those people who believe purely in the mathematical formulas or scientific methods that, in contrary, prediction is much more subjective that objective analysis of historical data. A great conviction can even make a sea change in the progress of mankind, and what could be more glaring example than India's winning in yesterday's quarterfinal.

1 comment:

  1. Interesting observation comparing India's victory over Ausralia to how a strong belief in oneself self can make all the difference! Alok are you a cricketer?

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